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Adams, F K (2004) The management of risks in international infrastructural projects, Unpublished PhD Thesis, Department of Business Studies, University of Edinburgh.

Ahiaga-Dagbui, D D (2014) Rethinking construction cost overruns: an artificial neural network approach to construction cost estimation, Unpublished PhD Thesis, School of Engineering, University of Edinburgh.

Al-Remal, A M (2013) Risk-based design of structures for fire, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , University of Edinburgh.

Alsedairy, F S (2019) Dynamics of mega infrastructure decision-making in Saudi Arabia, Unpublished PhD Thesis, School of Engineering, University of Edinburgh.

Baker, A J (2019) ‘Suitable and sufficient’? UK regulation of post-construction fire safety, Unpublished PhD Thesis, School of Social & Political Science, University of Edinburgh.

Baker, H (2021) A multimethod approach to learning from text-based construction failure data, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , University of Edinburgh.

Bartlett, A I (2018) Auto-extinction of engineered timber, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , University of Edinburgh.

Campbell, J M (2008) Safety hazard and risk identification and management in infrastructure management, Unpublished PhD Thesis, School of Engineering, University of Edinburgh.

Dunlop, P G (2005) Investigation, modelling and planning of stochastic concrete placing operations, Unpublished PhD Thesis, School of Engineering, University of Edinburgh.

Eid, M E M (2004) Rethinking relationships in the construction industry: integrating sustainable development into project management processes, Unpublished PhD Thesis, Department of Architecture, University of Edinburgh.

French, T R (2012) Evolutionary optimisation of network flow plans for emergency movement in the built environment, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , University of Edinburgh.

  • Type: Thesis
  • Keywords: building design; complexity; computing; evacuation; improvement; performance; uncertainty; simulation; experiment; heuristic; probability
  • ISBN/ISSN:
  • URL: http://hdl.handle.net/1842/5856
  • Abstract:
    Planning for emergency evacuation, and, more generally, for emergency movement involving both evacuation (egress) of occupants and ingress of first responders, presents important and challenging problems. A number of the current issues that arise during emergency incidents are due to the uncertainty and transiency of environmental conditions. In general, movement plans are formulated at building design-time, and those involved, such as building occupants and emergency responders, are left to adapt routing plans to actual events as they unfold. In the context of next-generation emergency response systems, it has been proposed to dynamically plan and route individuals during an emergency event, replanning to take account of changes in the environment. In this work, an emergency movement problem, the Maximal Safest Escape (MSE) problem, is formulated in terms that model the uncertain and transient environmental conditions as a flow problem in time-dependent networks with time-varying and stochastic edge travel-times and capacities (STV Networks). The objective of the MSE problem is to find flow patterns with the a priori maximal probability of successfully conveying all supply from the source to the sink in some given STV Network. The MSE and its deterministic counterpart are proved to be NP-hard. Furthermore, due to inherent complexity in evaluating the exact quality of candidate solutions, a simulation approximation method is presented based on well-known Monte-Carlo sampling methods. Given the complexity of the problem, and using the approximation method for evaluating solutions, it is proposed to tackle the MSE problem using a metaheuristic approach based on an existing framework that integrates Evolutionary Algorithms (EA) with a state-of-the-art statistical ranking and selection method, the Optimal Computing Budget Allocation (OCBA). Several improvements are proposed for the framework to reduce the computational demand of the ranking method. Empirically, the approach is compared with a simple fitness averaging approach and conditions under which the integrated framework is more efficient are investigated. The performance of the EA is compared against upper and lower bounds on optimal solutions. An upper bound is established through the “wait-and-see” bound, and a lower bound by a naıve random search algorithm (RSA). An experimental design is presented that allows for a fair comparison between the EA and the RSA. While there is no guarantee that the EA will find optimal solutions, this work demonstrates that the EA can still find useful solutions; useful solutions are those that are at least better than some baseline, here the lower bound, in terms of solution quality and computational effort. Experimentally, it is demonstrated that the EA performs significantly better than the baseline. Also, the EA finds solutions relatively close to the upper bound; however, it is difficult to establish how optimistic the upper bounds. The main approach is also compared against an existing approach developed for solving a related problem wrapped in a heuristic procedure in order to apply the approach to the MSE. Empirical results show that the heuristic approach requires significantly less computation time, but finds solutions of significantly lower quality. Overall, this work introduces and empirically verifies the efficacy of a metaheuristic based on a framework integrating EAs with a state-of-the-art statistical ranking and selection technique, the OCBA, for a novel flow problem in STV Networks. It is suggested that the lessons learned during the course of this work, along with the specific techniques developed, may be relevant for addressing other flow problems of similar complexity.

Furber, A (2013) The social and cultural context of rural water and sanitation projects: case studies from Ghana, Unpublished PhD Thesis, School of Engineering, University of Edinburgh.

Glendinning, M (1991) 'Give the people homes!': Britain's multi-storey housing drive, Unpublished PhD Thesis, Edinburgh College of Art, University of Edinburgh.

Graham, D (2005) Stochastic modelling and analysis of construction processes, Unpublished PhD Thesis, School of Engineering, University of Edinburgh.

Hashim, R (2018) Green innovation adoption in the construction sector : the role of absorptive capacity and the effect of environmental requirements, Unpublished PhD Thesis, Business School, University of Edinburgh.

Hellowell, M S (2012) Fair return for risk? An examination of structure, competition and profitability in the market for private finance in the National Health Service, Unpublished PhD Thesis, School of Social and Political Science, University of Edinburgh.

Hsiao, C C (2000) Constructing a sustainable impact assessment methodology : an evaluation of Taiwanese EIA of high-rise building, Unpublished PhD Thesis, College of Art, University of Edinburgh.

Jackson, D J (2020) Addressing the challenges of reducing greenhouse gas emissions in the construction industry: a multi-perspective approach, Unpublished PhD Thesis, Business School, University of Edinburgh.

Jiménez-Moreno, P (2020) Mass customisation for zero energy housing: the potential of Japanese manufacturing practices in the context of sustainable housebuilding in the United Kingdom, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , University of Edinburgh.

Kanellopoulos, G (2022) External fire spread from timber lined compartments, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , University of Edinburgh.

Kim, S (1998) Sustainable building practices: minimising the life-cycle environmental impact of high-rise apartments in Korea, Unpublished PhD Thesis, Department of Architecture, University of Edinburgh.

Knebel, V (2006) Preserve and rebuild: the built environment, status transformations and identity construction in eastern Germany after reunification, Unpublished PhD Thesis, Department of Sociology, University of Edinburgh.

Koutsomarkos, V (2023) Developing a fire robustness index for the built environment, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , University of Edinburgh.

Marquardt, G (2017) Economic analysis of contract choice, feelings of entitlement and contract enforcement in relationships governed by incomplete contracts, Unpublished PhD Thesis, School of Economics, University of Edinburgh.

McArthur, J (2023) Enrolment, technical mediation, and the obligatory passage point: a socio-technical examination of the Canada Green Building Council, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , University of Edinburgh.

McMeel, D (2009) The artistry of construction: an investigation into construction as a creative process and the influence of mobile phones within domestic scale construction projects, Unpublished PhD Thesis, Department of Architecture, University of Edinburgh.

Oliver, A K (2020) Perceptions of sustainability and their influence in the design and delivery of Scottish housing, Unpublished PhD Thesis, School of Engineering, University of Edinburgh.

Oswald, D (2016) Investigating unsafe acts on a large multinational construction project, Unpublished PhD Thesis, School of Engineering, University of Edinburgh.

Raman, P G (1977) Information and architectural design: A study of certain theoretical aspects, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , University of Edinburgh.

Rodger, R G (1976) Scottish urban housebuilding, 1870-1914, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , University of Edinburgh.

Ronzani, M (2019) Designing for complexity: Data visualizations in megaproject management, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , University of Edinburgh.

Saoud, E A B (1996) Expert systems for management training in the construction industry, Unpublished PhD Thesis, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Edinburgh.

Sidwell, N C (1957) A critical examination of new constructional techniques and their influence on productivity in the building industry with special reference to housing in south-east Scotland, Unpublished PhD Thesis, School of Engineering, University of Edinburgh.

Smith, S D (1994) Production estimation of earthmoving operations using a discrete-event simulation model, Unpublished PhD Thesis, Civil Engineering, University of Edinburgh.

Yang, S-A (1995) Kics: Representation of regulatory information and the use of case-based reasoning to support the relaxation process, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , University of Edinburgh.